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Market predictions and forex forecasts for the week of 28 March 2022.
Week starting 28-03-2022
We have excluded the Russian Ruble from the analysis in our report due to the extreme volatility associated with the currency.
- The USD weakened against nine of its top 19 currency pairs. The most notable weakening was against the Brazilian Real (BRL) (-4.06%) and the ZAR (-1.87%) whilst the most significant strengthening was against the Japanese Yen (JPY) (3.05%) and the Polish Złoty (PLN) (0.59%).
- There was minimal data from the United States last week, with the USD mostly being influenced by speculation regarding its future interest rate hiking trajectory. In addition, US President, Joe Biden, travelled to Europe to meet with NATO countries to discuss their reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- This week, the main event would be the US nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. We will monitor to see if the economy can maintain its job growth.
- The Euro had a terrible week in trading, weakening against 17 of its top 19 currency pairs. The Euro only strengthened against the JPY (2.52%) and the South Korean Won (KRW) (0.27%) whilst weakening most significantly against the BRL (-6.06%) and the ZAR (-2.51%).
- Last week, there was no noteworthy data from the EU. The main risk factors at play are the war in Ukraine, the effects this could have on the EU energy markets and further humanitarian crises arising from refugees fleeing the country.
- Coming up, the EU unemployment data for February will be released on Tuesday and the inflation data for March will be released on Friday. This is expected to increase quite drastically with the main contributing factor being a massive increase in energy prices by over 30%.
- The Pound had a disappointing week, weakening against 14 of its top 19 currency pairs. The largest downside movements were against the BRL (-4.32%) and the ZAR (-2.12%) whilst the largest upside movements were against the JPY (2.92%) and the EUR (0.42%).
- Last week, the UK inflation data was released on Wednesday. Rates increased more than anticipated, hitting a new 30-year high. On Friday, the UK retail sales data was released and contracted on a month-on-month basis.
- This week, the UK GDP data will be released on Thursday. Depending how this report goes, the GBP could swing with this data. The war in Ukraine remains a critical risk factor to always consider.
- The South African Rand had an incredible week of trading. The ZAR strengthened against 18 of its top 19 currency pairs. The only weakness was against the BRL (-2.92%), with the most notable strengthening against the JPY (5.23%) and the KRW (2.85%).
- Last week, the main event was the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) interest rate decision, where rates were increased by 25 basis points to 4.25%, as anticipated. Even though this increase was expected, the market took this as a positive and the ZAR strengthened. At the announcement, the SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago, painted a rosy picture of the outlook for the country, which could have helped the current bullish move in the ZAR.
- This week, we have two main data points: The unemployment rate on Tuesday and the trade balance on Thursday. We’ll watch closely to see if the ZAR can hold on to gains from the past month.
- The Australian Dollar had another stellar week of gains, weakening only against two of its top 19 currency pairs. The largest downside moves were against the BRL (-4.23%) and the ZAR (-0.30%) with the most notable upside moves against the JPY (4.77%) and the PLN (2.27%).
- The main contributing factor to the AUD rally seems to stem from the increase in commodity prices. This increase, together with how far-removed Australia seems to be from the war in Ukraine, has helped buoy the currency in recent weeks.
- Coming up, there is minimal Australian data apart from the February Australian retail sales data, which will be released on Tuesday. Furthermore, we will see if the AUD can hold on to the gains from the past month.
- The NZD had a generally positive trading week, strengthening against 14 of its top 19 currency pairs. The most notable gains were against the JPY (3.94%) and the PLN (1.44%) whilst the most significant losses were against the ZAR (-1.11%) and the AUD (-0.82%).
- There was no noteworthy data from New Zealand last week. The focus for many was the GBP/NZD pair and if it could remain below this critical 1.90 level.
- The main data event this week is the ANZ business outlook index of New Zealand. It was incredibly negative in January, and many wonder if New Zealand might recover.
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